Resumen

The probabilistic reasoning of 76 high school students is analysed when interpreting a report on COVID-19 taken from the media. Based on the report, five questions are posed that involve computing or estimating simple, complementary and compound probabilities and making a decision based on the information presented. The results show that the students correctly calculate the simple probability and that of the complementary event, and many use their contextual knowledge to answer the questions. However, they have great difficulty in the composite probability calculation, and when making a decision, they do not take into account the previous results in order to propose measures to fight against infection, the general tendency being to follow the indications that are already suggested the health authorities. We conclude that it is important to educate the students' probabilistic reasoning in order to face extracurricular situations.